Many times during severe weather season we show you the severe weather risk for Central Texas.  Here recently I had someone ask me who comes up with what kind of risk we are under, and what is the difference between the different types of risk?

To answer the first question, the Severe Weather Outlook is issued by the Storm Prediction Center.  The Storm Prediction Center (formally known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center) is part of the National Weather Service, and is located in Norman Oklahoma.  The main responsibilities of the Storm Prediction Center are to issue Severe Weather Outlooks, and to issue Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches.

When it comes to the severe weather outlook, there are three different categories used to symbolize the coverage and intensity of the expected severe weather threat: Slight, Moderate, and High.

According to the Storm Prediction Centers web site, this is how they classify the different types of risk:

A “Slight Risk” means that strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, but in small numbers or low coverage. 

A “Moderate Risk” indicates a potential for a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms than the slight risk, and in most situations, greater magnitude of the severe weather.

A “High Risk” area suggests a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with a high concentration of severe weather reports and an enhanced likelihood of extreme severe weather (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events occurring across a large area). In a high risk, the potential exists for 20 or more tornadoes, some possibly F2 or stronger, or widespread wind damage and higher end wind gusts (80+ mph) that may result in structural damage.

 For a link to the Storm Predictions Center's web site, go to our new Advanced Forecasting Page at:  http://www.kwtx.com/advancedforecasting