If you've peeked ahead to June in your 2008 News 10 Weather Authority Calendar, you may have noticed that June 1st is the "official" start of the 2008 Hurricane Season. That's right around the corner, so I'd thought I'd give you a little insight into what we expect this hurricane season.

There are two main groups that issue predictions for the upcoming hurricane season. The first is led by Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University. He first issued his hurricane forecasts in 1984, and has since become the most famous hurricane forecaster in the world. The second group is NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - which is the government agency that oversees the National Weather Service and its various branches.

Dr. Gray's most recent forecast for the 2008 hurricane season was issued on April 9th. He is calling for 15 tropical storms in the Atlantic basin, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes (which are hurricanes that reach at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). That's above the seasonal average of 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes. NOAA's forecast is not quite as specific: it is predicting 12-16 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 intense hurricanes. Still, that's a forecast that calls for an above average hurricane season.

It's important to remember that these are generalized forecasts based on preexisting conditions and long-term trends. There's no way to tell exactly how many hurricanes we'll have this season, or how many of those may affect the U.S. coastline. But the forecasts give us the general notion that we may be in for a busy late summer and fall, and we'll want to keep a close eye on the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico!

And we may see the hurricane season get off to an early start. Check out this forecast for late next week (Friday, May 31st), generated by one of our long-range computer models:

It shows a very intense area of tropical low pressure developing in the western Caribbean. Now that's a long way off, and as I've discussed previously, computer models are very unreliable when forecasting that far in advance. But it's something we'll be watching closely as we begin the 2008 Hurricane Season!

You can stay updated with this season's action on our Tropical Weather Page, which has maps of the Gulf, Caribbean, and western Atlantic, a list of the names that will be used this hurricane season, and a guide to the Saffir-Simpson scale. We'll also post the latest advisories and forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for any active storms in the Atlantic basin. And of course, keep checking the weather blogs for our latest thoughts on this hurricane season!