(October 6, 2006)—A major hurricane could develop in the next few weeks as the 2006 hurricane season winds down, but it appears more and more likely that won’t happen, said John Nielsen-Gammon, professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, who serves as the official climatologist for Texas.
The reason, he says, appears to be El Nino, a large area of warm water in the central Pacific Ocean that can affect worldwide weather patterns.
“In a year when we have a developing El Nino, there tends to be fewer hurricanes,” he said.
“Many of the forecasts out now predict that October will be a less-than-average month for hurricanes. You can’t entirely rule them out – hurricanes have formed before as late as December – but it appears the chance of one or more major hurricanes is less likely to happen,” he said.
Last year’s storm season produced a record 27 named hurricanes including Katrina and Rita, which resulted in massive devastation in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.
Only nine named storms have formed this year, and only five of those have been hurricanes, most of which stayed well out to sea.
“Last year’s hurricane season was touted by some as being caused by global warming. This year’s season reminds us that short-term natural variations in climate conditions are still the dominant controlling factor for hurricanes in any given year,” Nielsen-Gammon said.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 1.
Take Advantage Of Our Hurricane Tracker. Click Here To Download News Central Desktop Alert
Click Here For The Latest From The Doppler Ten Forecast Center
Click Here For National Hurricane Center Web Site
