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Feeling like spring before a mid-week front drops temps, sparks some rain

Published: Feb. 23, 2021 at 4:55 AM CST|Updated: Feb. 23, 2021 at 5:51 AM CST
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The all-time February record low temperature of -1° was set just one week ago. Today, we’re talking about high temperatures within 11° of the record high temperature and nearly 15° warmer than the average! Before you get too used to the warmth, know that we have another noticeable temperature drop coming behind a cold front moving through Wednesday. Morning temperatures today will start out in the 40s. Some spots will be in the low 40s while others may start out close to 50°, but with ample sunshine, temperatures will quickly even out in the low 70s by lunch time. Late-afternoon highs are expected to reach the upper 70s and some cities and towns west of I-35 could briefly reach 80°! Gusty south winds today between 15 and 25 MPH will keep warm and humid air moving into the atmosphere and that’ll only allow temperatures to fall into the mid-50s by Wednesday morning. A midday cold front will help to keep temperatures in check Wednesday, but highs should still be about 10° above normal in the low 70s. We’ll reach those low 70° early in the afternoon before dropping a few degrees into the 60s before sunset.

Wednesday’s front doesn’t bring us any rain and should completely clear the area, but the front is expected to stall to our south and bring us a few days of unsettled weather. Thursday is the most likely day for rain. We’re expecting mostly cloudy to near overcast skies throughout the day and scattered light rain off and on throughout the day. Thursday’s rain chances are near 60% with highs only expected to reach the mid 50s, but the precipitation chances stay near 60% into the night. We could hear some rumbles of thunder Thursday night too but severe storms are not expected. Small hail is possible, but it won’t be anything larger than penny size. Thursday night’s rain should gradually end Friday morning and most of the afternoon should be rain-free. Skies remain mostly cloudy again Friday as temperatures warm close to 60°. The stalled front to the south will gradually move into Central Texas as a warm front this weekend Saturday or (most likely) on Sunday. Saturday’s rain chances are near 30% with highs reaching the mid-to-upper 60s. Mid 70s are expected Sunday since we’ll be behind that warm front. Unfortunately, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty as to whether or not another cold front arrives Sunday or Monday. We’re expecting the front to move through late Sunday into the daytime hours Monday bringing us a chance for showers and storms. Sunday’s rain chances near 50% drop to 40% Monday. Next week’s cold front will either entirely clear the area and bring quiet and seasonable weather for much of next week or it could stall out and bring more opportunities for rain. As of now, I’m thinking it’ll clear the area and next week remains mostly rain free, but we’re going to keep a 20% to 30% chance of rain around just in case.

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