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A few showers with today’s front, watching for strong storms Friday afternoon

Published: Apr. 7, 2021 at 5:16 AM CDT|Updated: Apr. 7, 2021 at 1:46 PM CDT
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A parade of cold fronts is expected to march through Central Texas over the next 10 days and each front will bring different weather than the last. Unfortunately, each front won’t be bringing appreciable rain chances and rain odds are staying below 50% each day through the end of next week. We’ll start with today’s front that is currently moving through our eastern counties. A few showers and thunderstorms are moving east along this front. Across East Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas the severe weather threat will go up with this front. Behind the front we are seeing clearing skies and gusty northwest winds.

Another storm system is expected to approach on Friday and we’re keeping a very close eye on the possibility of severe weather late Friday afternoon and into Friday night. Atmospheric conditions should support scattered strong late afternoon thunderstorms but a layer of warm air aloft, called the cap, and the impact of morning cloudiness on temperatures could potentially prevent those storms from forming. If we stay cloudy and “cooler” in the low 80s, storms may have trouble forming. However, if skies clear early in the afternoon, sunshine will boost temperatures and storms will likely fire up. If severe storms form, we’re expected them to contain some very large hail with ping-pong ball size or larger. In fact, the strongest and healthiest thunderstorms could potentially contain golf-ball size or even larger hail. Strong wind gusts between 60 and 70 MPH could be possible with the strongest storms and a stray tornado or two is certainly possible. Storms may not become rooted near the surface Friday and could mitigate the tornado risk. Friday’s morning temperatures are expected to start out in the mid 60s with cloudy skies and potentially some isolated drizzle. Some sunshine is expected to break out in the afternoon boosting highs from around 86° to around 90° across the area. If you live near and especially west of I-35, high temperatures are expected to be warmer, potentially climbing as high as about 94°, however the dry line should be east of your area and the potential for storms will be near zero. The scattered strong afternoon storms should hang around Central Texas, especially near and east of I-35, through the evening if they do form thanks to an arriving cold front. The front sinks into our area and should gradually clear storms out around and shortly after midnight.

The next few cold fronts will arrive in Central Texas next week. The next front arrives on Monday just in time to prevent temperatures from soaring. High temperatures behind Friday’s front will only reach the upper 70s and low 80s Saturday under mostly clear skies. Skies stay mostly clear Sunday and will reach the mid 80s yet again. Monday’s front arrives in the morning which should prevent us from having more than about a 20% chance of rain. Temperatures should still reach the low 80s despite the front moving in. We’re expecting partly cloudy skies Tuesday with late-day highs only reaching the mid 70s. Rain remains out of the forecast on Tuesday for now however that could change since there’s a lot of uncertainty regarding when another front will push through next week. As of now, the front is slated to arrive Wednesday with some scattered rain. Wednesday’s front is also showing signs of a notable cool down! High temperatures late next week could potentially stay in the 60s!

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