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Strong storms possible this afternoon, more rain arriving tomorrow

Published: Apr. 15, 2021 at 5:11 AM CDT|Updated: Apr. 15, 2021 at 12:10 PM CDT
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Two storm systems are expected to swing through Central Texas over the next two days bringing us a good chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be on the strong side, especially today west of I-35, but the overall severe weather risk is staying relatively low. Midday showers and thunderstorms are expected to confined almost entirely west of I-35. The scattered showers and storms moving in from the west will spread across Central Texas through the remainder of the afternoon. Rain should start to approach I-35 by mid-afternoon and then will approach I-45 late this afternoon. The strongest storms today will produce up to golf-ball size hail and potentially some gusty winds. Today’s tornado threat is quite low since storms are expected to remain elevated away from the surface layer. Today’s highest severe storm risk will be in western Bell, Coryell, Lampasas, Mills, and San Saba County. but any city or town could see a strong storm wroll though. The widely scattered to numerous showers and storms will likely continue into the early evening before potentially exiting the area around midnight. We’re expecting to dry out some overnight, although a few isolated showers will remain possible, but shower and storm chances may increase during the morning hours as a warm front approaches.

There’s still a few unknowns about how widespread Friday’s rain will be and there’s a chance, depending on exactly where the storm system moves, that the area stays rain-free for a good portion of the day. A warm front is expected to move through the area Friday morning and could produce some scattered thunderstorms along and potentially just behind it. Morning rain chances are near 60% however if the warm front doesn’t arrive until later in the day or if the storm system it’s attached too is too far to the north, we may remain mostly dry. If morning storms form, they could contain gusty winds and some hail. We could see a lull in the rain after midday before a cold front swings through during the afternoon and early evening hours. The late-day front should kick up some more scattered showers and storms mainly after 3 PM (with another low severe weather chance) before clearing the area after sunset. We’re anticipating the best rain chances to start the day but we won’t be able to definitively determine Friday’s rain chances until the system gets a little bit closer.

Regardless of how Friday’s weather evolves, the colder air behind Friday’s front will overspread the area through the entire weekend. Skies should remain mostly cloudy throughout the day on Saturday and will combine with gusty north winds to only allow morning temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s to reach the low-to-mid 60s late in the day. A few stray showers are possible in the morning and then potentially again late in the afternoon but Saturday’s overall rain chances are capped at 20%. A bit more sunshine will return Sunday however we’re still not going to see much of a warm up as highs should stay in the mid-to-upper 60s. Highs are expected to stay below average all week next week. We’ll begin the week on Monday in the upper 60s and low 70s but should warm into the mid-70s Tuesday in advance of another cold front. Tuesday’s front comes through dry but will likely drop temperatures a few degrees Wednesday. South winds are expected to return late-week but a storm system could move through Thursday or Friday. Instead of warming up close to 80°, the scattered showers and storms should keep temperatures a little cooler in the mid-to-upper 70s. The potential for severe weather late next week is still unknown right now but it’s that time of year that all storm chances need to be monitored!

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