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Eyeing increasing Mother’s Day rain chances

Published: May. 5, 2021 at 5:05 AM CDT
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Phenomenal weather is in the forecast for all of Central Texas through the end of the work week and even into the start of the weekend, but forecast model data is now trending toward a stormier Mother’s Day as a cold front moves in and potentially stalls out. There’s still a lot of time to fine-tune the forecast details so don’t go changing your Mother’s Day plans on account of the weather, but keep your eyes peeled to the forecast since there may be a chance for stronger storms if storms do form. Before we get to the rain, we encourage everyone to enjoy the absolutely PHENOMENAL weather outside for the next few days. Morning temperatures are starting out a bit cool in the low-to-mid 50s this morning and will end up just a few degrees shy of the average of 82°. Midday temperatures will reach near 70° and late-day highs should settle between 75° and 80°. We’re not going to see many, if any, clouds today and sunshine is expected to stay plentiful Thursday and Friday too. Temperatures tomorrow and Friday morning in the mid-to-upper 50s will reach the low-to-mid 80s for highs late in the day. Humidity is expected to stay low during the afternoon with dew points in the 50s too!

We’ll start to see some changes to the weather Friday as breezy south winds return. The south winds won’t have much of an impact until Saturday. Saturday’s winds will be strong, gusting to near 30 MPH at times, with partly cloudy skies overhead. Temperatures will start out noticeably warmer in the mid-60s with mostly cloudy skies before sunshine returns in the afternoon boosting temperatures into the mid-80s. There may be a stray shower or storm in the afternoon but we’re expecting a capped atmosphere so rain chances stay less than 10%. Mother’s Day will start out very warm and cloudy with morning temperatures in the low 70s. A stray sprinkle or two may be around to kick off the day but we’ll likely stay precipitation free. It was looking likely that we’d reach 90° again Sunday, however that’s looking less likely because partly-to-mostly cloudy skies should hang around for most of the day and a cold front could arrive late in the afternoon. Highs are now expected to top out in the mid-to-upper 80s. Sunday’s rain chances are near 40% with the most likely locations for rain coming near and east of I-35. Some storms late-day and into the evening with the front could be strong, primarily with a strong wind gust risk. Although rain is looking more likely on Sunday, there’s still a lot of uncertainty with how fast the front will arrive. The front has been trending quicker but it still could arrive on Monday. Rain chances hang around for much of next week as the front is expected to stall somewhere over Texas. We’re keeping a 30% chance of rain with highs close to average for much of next week, however it won’t rain each and every day and the amount of rain we see depends on exactly where the front stalls. It’ll do wonders to help with the drought in Central Texas if it stalls overhead. We’re now running nearly an eight-inch rainfall deficit when using the newly released 30-year climate averages.

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