Flooding rain a concern as a rainy string of days kicks off this weekend

Updated: May. 14, 2021 at 5:15 AM CDT
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Enjoy the (relatively) gorgeous weather that’s in the forecast today and for parts of Saturday because we’re expecting multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms kicking off late Saturday and lasting potentially all the way through the end of next weekend. Unlike many May storm systems, the overall chances for severe weather aren’t terribly high, however we’re still concerned with multiple days of rainfall leading to flooding. We’re still running over a 7″ rainfall deficit year-to-date and we’re expecting to make up most of that before rain finally comes to a close (whenever it does) since 3″ to 5″+ may fall through next weekend. Enjoy the phenomenal Friday weather while you can! Morning temperatures in the 50s and low 60s under partly-to-mostly cloudy skies will warm into the upper 70s late today under those partly-to-mostly cloudy skies. South winds are back today and will remain occasionally breezy straight through next week. The continued south winds keep moisture moving through the atmosphere, which will lead to the high rainfall chances and totals, but it’ll also lead to a bit of a warmer and more humid weekend. Morning temperatures Saturday will only fall into the low-to-mid 60s before warming into the low 80s. Saturday is expected to be a mostly cloudy but also mostly dry day. The 30% chance of showers and storms we have in the forecast is for the late-afternoon and early evening before a 40% chance of rain arrives overnight.

The weather pattern that will lead to next week’s high rainfall potential and rainfall accumulation is a difficult one to pin down. Rain chances are in the forecast late Saturday through Sunday but the previous day’s weather will influence the following day’s weather. The perfect example of this is Sunday’s forecast. Our forecast calls for highs just a touch under 80° with a 60% chance of rain. Sunday could either be a dry day or a soggy one. If showers and storms impact Central Texas overnight into Sunday morning, most of the day Sunday will likely be dry. However, if we’re rain and storm free Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms are then expected to become widely scattered midday and into the afternoon especially. As far as next week’s rain goes, we’re expecting multiple waves of rain to move through, some of which will be heavy at times. As of right now, the highest potential for rain remains Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but each and every day through Saturday will have at least a 40% chance. Morning temperatures next week stay stagnant in the mid-to-upper 60s, and highs should warm up out of the low 80s thanks to the rain. The rainy weather pattern may not lend itself to widespread severe weather though. A few occasional strong storms are possible at any point next week with the best potential for that coming Tuesday and Thursday. Next week’s tornado chances are low and if we were to see any severe storms outside of just the heavy rain, we may have gusty winds and quarter-size hail.

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