Multiple rounds of heavy rain expected to bring flooding to Central Texas this week

Published: May. 17, 2021 at 5:16 AM CDT|Updated: May. 17, 2021 at 11:54 AM CDT
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The half-inch to nearly two inch rainfall totals seen Sunday is just a precursor to the heavy rain that is still expected to fall during the week as a slow-moving storm system provides multiple rounds of heavy rain and potentially some strong storms to Central Texas. The entire area is under a flash flood watch through 7 AM Wednesday but that watch will more than likely be extended through Wednesday and potentially even deeper into the week as well. Sunday’s rainfall totals were decently high, between 0.5″ to nearly 2″ around the I-35 corridor but we’re still expecting another 3″ to 6″+ to fall through the remainder of the week. Most of that rain should fall Tuesday and Wednesday and in some instances, isolated totals through the week could be between 7″ and 9″. Finally, in addition to the localized heavy rain, there will be a few chances for severe thunderstorms, especially Monday night and Tuesday, with gusty winds and some hail being the main threat.

Midday showers and storms are moving through and we’re expecting scattered rain showers and storms to be around for the remainder of the day. The afternoon rain should allow for rain chances to decrease early evening, but more storms may arrive tonight. Afternoon rain chances are again between about 40% and 50% and a stray strong storm is possible. Regardless of whether or not strong storms occur, locally heavy rain is expected within any cell today and localized flooding could be an issue through the early evening. Early evening rain chances will decrease but we have to keep a close eye on thunderstorms expected to fire up well west of our area. Today’s late-day storms in West Texas will make a run on North Texas (potentially) missing us to the north, but potentially a second wave of storms overnight could arrive a bit before sunrise Tuesday. These storms could be severe as they move in with gusty winds and large hail being the primary severe weather risk mainly near and west of I-35 overnight into the early morning hours. The storms should stall and dissipate near our area but the remnant boundaries could spark more numerous showers and storms into the day. The remnant boundaries could remain near our area and spark more rain Wednesday although Wednesday’s rain chances may be mostly near and east of I-35, eventually pulling into Southeast Texas during the day. Confidence in the rain timing over the next few days is low because the remnants from each day’s rain will determine where the next day’s rain will flare up but we’re expecting the best chances Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Severe storms are possible Tuesday and into Wednesday but rainfall through Wednesday alone could be between 2″ and 5″ with isolated totals over 6″ possible. Urban, creek, river, and low-water crossing flooding is expected, especially Tuesday and Wednesday! Continued rounds of rain are expected Thursday through Sunday although rain chances will gradually decrease as we move into the weekend and daily rainfall totals should generally stay below an inch. However, the high mid-week rainfall totals will leave the ground saturated and it won’t take much late-week rain to spark renewed flooding.

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