Tropical Storm Nicholas forms, expected to bring some rain to Central Texas

Published: Sep. 12, 2021 at 10:34 AM CDT
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Hurricane hunters found that the tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche has winds over 39 MPH and has a closed low-level center of circulation, strengthening into Tropical Storm Nicholas just before 10 AM Sunday. Tropical Storm Nicholas is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds for a few days to cities and towns near the Texas Gulf Coast from the Texas and Mexico border all the way to the Texas and Louisiana border as it slowly moves through the state over the coming days. Nicholas is expected to make landfall Monday or Tuesday as a strong tropical storm but it’ll take a few days for the system to completely clear the region bringing increased rain potential. The highest rainfall potential and the strongest winds will be along the immediate coast and near and east of the center of circulation. Since the center of Nicholas is expected to make landfall to our southeast and stay east of our area, our impacts will be generally minimal with a few days of rain chances, occasional breezy winds, and cooler temperatures.

Rain chances should be highest for Central Texas Monday and Tuesday, between about 40% and 50%, with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. While most of the area will have the potential for rain, the highest rainfall chances will be for cities and towns near and east of I-35. As Nicholas slowly moves through East Texas, occasional showers should rotate through from time to time, but the rainfall coverage for the middle and the end of the week should be notably lower. The exact track of Nicholas will determine the amount of rainfall we could see but rainfall totals for most should be below an inch through Friday. Higher totals, potentially near 2″, are possible east of I-35. If Nicholas takes more of a westerly track closer to the I-35 corridor and not through East Texas, our rain chances will greatly increase through the week and rainfall totals will be higher area wide.

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