Nicholas makes a Texas landfall later today, but the worst conditions stay well away from Central Texas
Tropical Storm Nicholas continued to gain strength during the overnight hours and reformed it’s center of circulation very close to the Brownsville area. Nicholas is a lopsided system and the worst impacts from the storm will be near and east of the center of circulation. Since we’ll be on the drier side of the storm, we’re only expecting occasional scattered rain moving through with most locations seeing less than an inch of rainfall through Friday. Morning rain chances today between 20% and 30% climb to between 40% and 50% midday and into the afternoon. By and large, the best potential for rainfall will be east of I-35 but everyone will have the opportunity. It will NOT rain all day long and there will be a fair amount of dry time. Don’t be surprised if you entirely miss out on rain today since Nicholas will be decently far away. Thanks to the partly-to-mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will start out warm in the low 70s and only warm into the mid 80s. Warmer weather is expected west of I-35 since more sunshine may peek through the clouds. Winds may turn a bit breezy, especially east of I-35, but shouldn’t be too bad. Sustained winds between 5 and 15 MPH may gust between 20 to 25 MPH at times.
Nicholas will make landfall later today or tonight close to the Corpus Christi area and will move northward. Nicholas is expect to make landfall as a strong tropical storm or potentially even a weak hurricane but wind speeds will quickly drop once it moves ashore. Regardless of the wind speeds, widespread heavy rain is in the forecast from Corpus Christi into Louisiana. From the Texas coastline to roughly about 60 miles inland, widespread rainfall totals between 6″ and 10″ are possible. Isolated higher totals from 12″ to potentially as much as 20″ are possible somewhere in the state, especially from the Houston Metro area to the Texas and Louisiana border. Nicholas makes its closest approach to Central Texas Tuesday, potentially even with the center of circulation skirting over the Brazos Valley. Despite the close approach, the lopsided nature of Nicholas may keep nearly all of the rain out of our area. Just like with today’s weather, occasional scattered rain may rotate through during the day, especially during the morning and afternoon. Rain chances are modest, generally around 40%, but not everyone will see precipitation. Temperatures will once again stay lower, mostly in the low-to-mid 80s, thanks to clouds and the scattered rain. Nicholas pulling away Tuesday late afternoon and evening should gradually end some of the rain. We’ll likely still keep rain chances around Wednesday morning before drier weather moves in during the afternoon. Wednesday’s rain chances are near 30% with highs warming back up into the upper 80s.
The end of the week’s forecast depends on whether or not Nicholas skedaddles out of here on time. We’re expecting Nicholas to pull away late Wednesday bringing us drier weather Thursday and Friday with highs returning back into the low 90s. If Nicholas stalls out, which is possible but not likely, rain chances may come back up Thursday and maybe Friday. Temperatures should warm back up into the low 90s late this week and into the weekend with highs peaking near around 94° Sunday. Rain chances may come back into the forecast this weekend too but odds are only near 20% right now. Forecast models are hinting at a cold front nearing the area next week, potentially between Tuesday and Thursday. The front, if it arrives, should kick up some scattered rain and potentially may even help to drop temperatures. Since the front’s arrival is very unclear, we’ll keep highs near 90° with a low chance for rain early next week.
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