Nicholas now over land, but staying far enough away for minimal Central Texas impacts

Published: Sep. 14, 2021 at 4:48 AM CDT|Updated: Sep. 14, 2021 at 5:33 AM CDT
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Nicholas made landfall on the east side of Matagorda Bay, close to Sargent Beach, shortly after midnight as a category 1 hurricane. Nicholas is now inland and will continue to gradually weaken over the coming hours. Although Nicholas is forecast to drop to tropical depression strength within the next 24 hours, heavy rain continues for East Texas and Louisiana today. We’re on the west side of Nicholas which has nearly no rain associated with it. While the chance for rain remains in the forecast today, most of us likely won’t see rain at all. Temperatures this morning range from the mid-60s to the low 70s west to east across the area. Cloudiness is moving through, mainly near and east of I-35, and that’s where the best opportunity for a few showers will be today. Rain chances peak near 40% in Milam, Robertson, and Leon County with a 30% rain chance for Limestone, Falls, and Freestone County. The I-35 corridor has between a 20% and 30% chance of rain with less than a 20% rain chance along and west of Highway 281. Just like we saw yesterday, rain will be generally isolated and few and far between. Rainfall totals should be less than a quarter-inch of rain wherever rain moves through, outside of stray downpours. Temperatures will range from the low 80s near I-45 where more clouds will be in place to the mid-to-upper 80s along and west of I-35 where sunshine will be a bit more present.

Nicholas pulls farther away from Central Texas tomorrow but residual clouds or even a stray shower is possible east of I-35. Rain chances Wednesday are capped at 10%. With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and sinking air behind the departing cyclone, temperatures should warm into the upper 80s for most with morning temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. Partly cloudy skies are back Thursday sending highs into the low 90s. It looks like what may be the final gasp of summer-like temperatures is on the way this weekend. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will feature highs in the low-to-mid 90s, unfortunately accompanied by heat index values near 100%. A few isolated showers are possible Saturday and Sunday although most of the rain chances should stay closer to the Gulf Coast. We’ll likely start the week next week in the low 90s but a true fall cold front continues to pop-up in forecast model data. There’s a fair amount of discrepancy remains about whether or not this cold front arrives Tuesday or Wednesday (coincidentally the first day of fall!) but should the front arrive, it’ll bring a high chance of showers and thunderstorms and a notable temperature drop. Since there’s still some uncertainty regarding the timing of the front and exactly the type of conditions it’ll bring, we’ll show a 30% chance of rain Tuesday and a 40% chance of rain Wednesday with temperatures late next week dropping into the mid-80s. Temperatures could be even cooler than that with maybe even a chance of some stray 50s in the morning, but I’m not ready to pull the trigger on that just yet...

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