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High Rain Chances This Week... Much Cooler This Weekend!

Published: Oct. 11, 2021 at 9:50 PM CDT
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The return of humidity overnight may lend to some scattered rain or non-severe storms Tuesday morning. While there won’t be a ton of rain to go around initially, we’ll have to keep our eyes peeled for any weather disruptions to the morning commute. Tuesday’s weather forecast is highly dependent on how quickly moisture returns to the area and how much sunshine breaks through the clouds. For the majority of us, morning temperatures will warm into the low-to-mid 80s. If sunshine peeks through the clouds, highs could reach the upper 80s east of I-35 with heat index values in the low 90s. A few scattered showers and storms could form again Tuesday afternoon, mainly near and east of I-35, with a conditional risk of severe weather. A disturbance could move in from Mexico Tuesday afternoon and potentially may spark a few isolated storms. If storms were to get going, there may be enough juice in the atmosphere for strong-to-severe storms near and east of I-35 potentially with gusty winds, hail, or even a stray tornado. The severe weather risk remains low right now but we’ll need to monitor conditions closely over the next 36 hours.

Some lingering rain is possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of our next storm system that’ll eventually blow through Friday. The approaching front will run into a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and should take a few days to move in. Scattered showers and storms are expected Wednesday, especially near and west of I-35, during the late-morning and afternoon with rain chances currently near about 50%. The approaching front and the ridge of high pressure paves the way for the remnants of current Tropical Storm Pamela in the eastern Pacific Ocean to be pulled directly over Central Texas. The tropical moisture and the slow-moving front should bring more numerous and potentially heavy rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Through Friday, when the rain is expected to end, we could see 2″ to 4″ of rain across the area with higher totals close to 6″ possible on an isolated basis. The highest rainfall potential may come near and west of I-35. The remnants of Pamela will help to drag the front through the area Friday with significantly drier and cooler air arriving Friday and lasting through much of next week.

True fall weather arrives behind Friday’s front and will last through the weekend and probably through much of next week! Expect morning temperatures behind the front Saturday through Wednesday to start out in the 40s and 50s. Sunday morning and Monday morning may be the coldest we’ve seen since spring as we could start in the low-to-mid 40s! High temperatures will actually be more akin to late October and early November weather. Expect highs to reach the upper 60s and low 70s Saturday and Sunday before we warm back into the mid-to-near upper 70s through Wednesday. Fall is FINALLY coming y’all!

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