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Storm chances return today and hang around through next week!

Published: May. 19, 2022 at 4:59 PM CDT|Updated: May. 20, 2022 at 1:56 PM CDT
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After the third day in a row of record-setting temperatures (and the fourth in the last five days), the end to the heat is finally in sight! A cold front will knock temperatures down late this weekend, but a parade of storm systems rolling through next week should keep temperatures lower thanks to increase rain chances! We have rain chances in the forecast each and every single day through early Thursday but the rain chances aren’t all created equal. Today’s storm chance is conditional and there’s a chance that no storms form at all. It will be another hot day as morning clouds bring way to afternoon sunshine. Highs should reach the mid-90s and potentially set another high temperature record! The dry line is expected to be situated just to our west and that could kick up a few isolated storms after 5 PM. Storms will be strong with gusty winds and hail, if they even do form, and the storms should move eastward and could hang on just long enough to bring some rain to near the I-35 corridor. Storms northwest of the Metroplex could also send a wave of rain-cooled air our way this evening which may help to kick up some storms too.

Rain chances are a lot more certain Saturday because a strong cold front will swing through the area. The front will unfortunately not arrive until late in the afternoon so highs will again be close to the record in the mid-90s. We could even see triple-digits since cold fronts this time of year do sometimes cause a temperature spike just before the front arrives. We’re expecting tomorrow’s storm chances to increase after about 4 PM as storms gradually form along the front. Saturday’s storms should be isolated west of I-35 but then become a bit more numerous to widespread near and especially east of I-35 as we near and move past sunset. These storms will again have a gusty wind and hail threat, but the storms should be moving forward quick enough to mitigate any flooding threat and to get rid of most of the precipitation by midnight.

Sunday should be a relatively dry day with highs only reaching the mid-to-upper 70s with a 30% chance of mainly morning rain. Sunday will likely be the last mostly dry day until Thursday. Forecast model data continues to show multiple waves of shower and thunderstorm chances moving through next week. Projected rainfall totals have been trimmed back a bit, closer to about 1″ to 3″ through Thursday, but there will likely be some spots that receive more than 3″ of rain. We’re expecting at least one big wave of rain, most likely late Monday and Tuesday, but there’s also chances for rain Monday afternoon, Wednesday, and early Thursday. The more waves of rain we see, the higher the rainfall totals will obviously be, but the heaviest rain could be focused near and east of I-35. Thankfully, next week’s severe weather risk should be relatively low but we’ll have to monitor for a few strong storms and for some flooding too. Temperatures should remain generally in the 70s and 80s next week for highs thanks to the waves of rain moving through, but temperatures are expected to claw back up into the 90s late Memorial Day weekend. Memorial Day weekend, for now, is looking dry.

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