Our next weather-maker comes from the Gulf of Mexico

Published: Jun. 28, 2022 at 6:20 AM CDT
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Thanks to rain-cooled air surging out from thunderstorms near San Antonio and Austin, Central Texas saw widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening. Even though some of that rain is still hanging on this morning along and south of Highway 190/I-14, the majority of the rain is over. There is still a chance for a few isolated showers or non-severe storms this afternoon but the rain chances have slid to about 20% to 30%. Before the late-day rain moved in, yesterday’s high temperatures reached the triple-digits for the 16th day this year and for the 9th day in a row. Should be reach 100° just one more time this month, we will tie 2011 for a record 17 triple-digit days in the month! I give us about a 50% chance of us actually tying that record and about a 20% chance to break it. Today’s high temperatures should reach the mid-90s with a few upper 90s near and east of I-35 with some low 90s west of I-35 thanks to extra cloud cover and some rain chances today. Today’s scattered rain may start after around 1 PM and will mainly impact cities and towns west of I-35 and especially Highway 281.

Temperatures should warm back up into the upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday with rain chances mostly dropping out of the forecast. There’s another 20% chance of rain returning Thursday attached to an approaching tropical system. This system, dubbed Invest 95L, is currently moving from Louisiana toward the Texas Gulf Coast. The system is fairly disorganized right now but conditions should be partially favorable for the system to close off it’s center of circulation and it could become the season’s next tropical depression or tropical storm. The system doesn’t have a ton of time to organize so it’s going to be a lopsided one. The highest rain coverage will be near and especially east of where the center moves ashore which could be anywhere from Galveston to Brownsville. We’re hoping for a landfall near Corpus Christi because that is the most favorable spot for us to see rain. Any farther south or north and the highest rain chances may be pulled out of our area.

Exactly where Invest 95L moves ashore dictates the weather Friday and Saturday for us. As of now, it’s likely that cities and towns near and especially east of I-35 will see widely scattered to numerous showers and non-severe storms Friday and maybe into Saturday. We’re only expecting upwards of a half-inch of rain to fall and not everyone will actually get the precipitation. We’ll have more updates on Invest 95L whenever they’re available and we’ll of course be fine-tuning the forecast if it looks like we’ll get more or less rainfall. After the tropical system departs late Saturday, the heat returns! High temperatures will be back in the upper 90s Sunday with the July 4th forecast showing triple-digit temperatures returning.

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