Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico may strengthen before moving into Texas

Published: Jun. 29, 2022 at 5:52 AM CDT
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All eyes in Texas are on an area of low pressure that’s been hanging out just off the Texas Gulf Coast for the past few days. The area of showers and thunderstorms, dubbed Invest 95L, is going to be the key to our weather late this week and into the weekend potentially bumping up our rain chances. The National Hurricane Center gives this area of low pressure a 40% chance of turning into a tropical depression or tropical storm before it moves ashore Thursday near the Corpus Christi area. This storm, regardless of whether it’s a tropical depression/storm or not, will bring heavy rain for cities and towns close to the coast, but the rainfall totals farther inland, including for Central Texas, all depends on exactly where the low moves when it’s inland. Forecast model data is showing the low moving more toward Houston after moving inland instead of closer to the I-35 corridor. Since this system is lopsided with most of the rain staying near and east of the center, we’re walking a thin line between decent rainfall and not much at all. The forecast calls for a 20% chance of afternoon pop-up showers tomorrow as the low moves into South Texas with a 30% chance of rain Friday and Saturday when the low makes it’s closest approach. Again, a more inland track means higher rain chances than what we have forecast right now with minimal rain should the system stay pinned to the coast. Highs should be cooler in the low-to-mid 90s both Friday and Saturday. Before the low departs the state Sunday, we could see another stray few showers late in the day. Highs will then warm back into the upper 90s and triple-digits as we move toward the 4th of July.

As far as what’s happening today? Well, nothing really! We have some wonderful morning temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s with low humidity, but the heat builds quickly when the sun comes up. Temperatures should warm into the upper 80s and low 90s by lunch time and we’re expecting mid-90s to return this afternoon. We won’t see triple-digit heat, but highs may be a degree or two above the average of 95°. Yes, there is a chance for rain today, but today’s best chance of rain is in Milam, Robertson, and Leon County and the rain chances are only near 10%.

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