Subtle changes on the way this weekend

Published: Aug. 5, 2022 at 5:33 AM CDT
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After notching our 51st 100° day of the year and the 34th triple-digit high in a row, we’re finally starting to see some subtle changes in the atmosphere that’ll mean we could see a break in triple-digits (albeit brief) with maybe some rain chances this weekend. Morning temperatures today are noticeably warmer than where we’ve been thanks to extra clouds moving through. Instead of starting out in the mid-to-upper 70s, we’re expecting upper 70s and low 80s by sunrise with heat index values in some spots int he mid-to-upper 80s before the sun even comes up. It’s entirely possible for a stray sprinkle in Central Texas this morning with those morning clouds, but the clouds will clear mid-morning and then return again in the afternoon. With off-and-on cloud cover, expect temperatures to warm back into the upper 90s for some but low triple-digits for most. We’re forecasting highs between around 98° to as high as 102°. Heat index values may be as high as 105° and there’s a chance for some late-day scattered rain after around 4 PM east of the I-35 corridor. Unfortunately, the spotty rain will be few and far between and most likely miss out on the precipitation.

Rain chances come back up to 20% tomorrow too, but the isolated showers should cover a bit more of Central Texas. Instead of having the 20% rain chances confined to the Brazos Valley, nearly everyone (except for cities and towns west of Highway 281) will have a 20% rain chances. We’re again expecting partly cloudy skies, but extra moisture in the atmosphere could easily stop our triple-digit streak in it’s tracks. We’re forecasting highs Saturday between 97° and 101°. Saturday’s 20% rain chance drops to 10% on Sunday and Monday and highs should again get back into the triple-digits (or stay there) through the start of the work week.

A cold front approaches the state Tuesday as high pressure shifts away but likely stalls out before reaching our area. The front should bring us a few extra clouds but the highest rain chances will be in North Texas and also along the Gulf coast. The front may ease closer to the area Wednesday before fizzling out Thursday. Wednesday’s rain chances come up to 30% Wednesday and remain at 20% Thursday before tailing off out of the forecast Friday and into next weekend. Highs Wednesday and Thursday likely only reach the mid-to-upper 90s so the triple-digit streak *should* come to a close if it had not already this upcoming weekend. High pressure is expected to move right back over the state next weekend so triple-digits will return. The returning ridge of high pressure next week likely will be a bit weaker than what we’ve seen so far this summer, but another heat dome moves back in nevertheless.

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