Tropical moisture passes to our south and widespread triple digit heat builds back into Central Texas
But a pattern change looks to arrive late in the work week that could bring us rain and cooler temperatures
Rain chances mostly shut off for Central Texans and temperatures warm as we head into a new week! Outside this Saturday afternoon temperatures are in the mid 90s to low 100s. Waco Regional Airport climbed into the low 100s, which now brings our 2022 100°-day count to 59 days, which is 4th most recorded in a year. Our streak is now sitting at 7 days. We will likely see these numbers rise as widespread triple digit heat begins to settle back into Central Texas early into the upcoming work week as an area of high-pressure strengthens.
We’re watching a weak disturbance down into the Gulf of Mexico that will bring an increase to shower and thunderstorm activity down along the Texas coast for the rest of the weekend. Unfortunately, most of the rain associated with this system passes to our south, mainly staying south of I-10. The impacts that Central Texas could see looks to be an increase in cloud cover and a very isolated late day rain chance.
A stray pop-up shower or two remains possible for the southern half of our area through sunset Saturday. Most, if not all, will remain rain-free. Saturday night into Sunday morning stays warm and muggy with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s under mostly fair skies.
Sunday afternoon looks mostly rain-free for Central Texas, but we’re expecting to see additional cloud cover thanks to that weak tropical system in south Texas. Those clouds do look to help keep our temperatures into the mid 90s to around 100°. We’ll monitor that tropical moisture to our south for a stray pop-up shower for the afternoon and evening hours.
That tropical system weakens as it moves through south Texas and an area of high-pressure regains control over our weather pattern. That means rain chances shut off and we lose the cloud cover, so temperatures in the low 100s are looking likely for the first half of the week. We could see heat index values reaching near 105° by the middle of the work week.
But after the middle of the work week, we will start to see that high-pressure system push further out west and that allows for weak disturbances and a cold front to slip into Texas. This means rain chances will be increasing as the cold front approaches. Rain chances begin to increase some Wednesday afternoon and evening as the front moves into North Texas. The best chance for rain in Central Texas looks to be Thursday and Friday. Temperatures look to also dip back into the mid to upper 90s during this time, which is where are normal highs should be for this time of the year. We’ll be fine-tuning the forecast for the next few days, but rain chances continue to look good! We will keep you updated on amounts, but at this time, this rain does not look to be drought busting, but anything will help.
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