Jack Frost is nipping at your car windshield this morning

My wife is getting tired of the cold weather and you probably are too, but it’s that magical time of the year, late January and early February, that we start seeing some wintertime weather curveballs. Colder-than-normal temperatures have been recorded every day since the 22nd and more fronts arriving over the coming days will help to keep the warmer-than-normal temperatures at bay. Morning lows today are starting out in the upper 20s and low 30s with clear skies and calm winds. Thanks to Tuesday’s rain, we have moisture in the atmosphere so frost is expected on elevated surfaces this morning. When we say elevated surfaces, we’re talking about car windshields mostly. If someone left a sprinkler on overnight, there could be ice on the roadway, but nothing else more than that. Give yourself a few moments to get the windshield defrosted. If you don’t do it yourself, the full sunshine will eventually! Temperatures warm from the 20s and 30s this morning into the mid-50s by the end of the afternoon. We may be a touch warmer tomorrow morning, but temperatures will still hover close to or below freezing and could bring another morning of patchy frost. We’ll see a lot of sunshine again Friday so highs will rebound back to average in the upper 50s and low 60s.

A major weather pattern shift arrives this weekend and lasts into next week. As a forewarning, the forecast for this weekend and next week will the partially driven by the weather earlier in time. Saturday and Sunday’s storm system could influence whether or not we see rain Monday, and a Tuesday cold front could potentially lay the groundwork for a cold rain or even some kind of wintry weather Wednesday or Thursday. We’re most confident in the forecast late Saturday and early Sunday as a storm system brings rain in before a cold front dries us out. Rain chances Saturday are near 40% with the highest chances coming near and east of I-35. Highs Saturday should still warm into the low-to-mid 60s since the front won’t reach us until Sunday, but a Sunday frontal passage during the morning hours may send morning temperatures in the 50s and 60s back into the 50s late in the day.

Depending on where Sunday’s front stalls and fizzles out, it could pave the way for a small disturbance to move through Monday. While small, the storm system could again kick up some more rain with current rain chances near 40%. Temperatures behind Sunday’s front will drop to near 40° in the morning hours Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Another round of rain could be around Tuesday too as a cold front arrives, but we’ll have to see whether the early week storm system will arrive all at once or if we’ll have two separate rounds of rain. Tuesday’s front could potentially set the stage for wintry weather Wednesday into Thursday as another storm system moves in from the west. At this time, we’re not forecasting wintry weather in Central Texas but the signals for wintry weather are slowly starting to pop up in forecast model data. We’ll know more soon, but we’re NOT expecting another repeat of the February storms in 2021 or 2022.

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