Break out the streamers: A parade of storm systems rolls through the area starting this weekend and lasting until next week
There’s something about February... Multiple storm systems will swing through the state next week and, for the third February in a row, bring wintry weather to the state. The good news is that we’re not yet seeing enough signs to call for wintry precipitation in Central Texas, but the bad news is that there’s still ample time for that to change. We’ll get into the details shortly. Today, all things considered, will be a perfect day of weather! Yes, our morning temperatures will be close to freezing with frost likely forming on your car’s windshield again, but abundant sunshine will boost temperatures into the low-to-mid 60s this afternoon. When the sun sets today, we’re expecting at least partly cloudy skies each and every single day through next weekend and we’ll likely see mostly cloudy skies starting this weekend through at least Thursday morning.
A cold front swings through the area Sunday morning, but scattered light rain is possible near and east of I-35 Saturday. Morning rain chances are near 20% but will climb to 40% midday and into the afternoon. The extra clouds and rain chances may keep some spots near and east of I-35 in the 50s for highs. Cities and towns west of I-35, where rain is les likely, may see temperatures warm into the mid-60s during the afternoon. Sunday’s front arrives during the morning hours. We’ll likely see morning highs in the 50s and low 60s, but the passing front should send temperatures down into the 40s and 50s by the end of the afternoon. Rain chances stay near 30% Sunday with most of the rain forming and staying east of I-35. Even after Sunday’s front clears the area, a weak disturbance behind the front could kick up a stray thunderstorm or two near and east of I-35 in the afternoon. Severe weather stays away, but the dropping temperatures could allow some very small hail to form.
Sunday’s front kicks off the parade of storm systems that’ll move through next week. While we’re expecting four distinct storm systems moving through from Sunday through next Thursday, the most impactful storm system will move through Tuesday through Thursday. Storm system number 1 arrives this weekend with storm system number 2 pushing through Monday. We’ll likely only see some light scattered light rain Monday with rain chances staying close to 40%, but it’ll be a cold rain as highs likely stay in the mid-to-upper 40s. Monday’s weak disturbance departs and storm system number 3 moves through Tuesday. A cold front arrives from the north and should again kick up widely scattered to numerous showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder too. Overnight lows Monday into Tuesday should drop into the mid-to-upper 30s so there’s no concern for wintry precipitation, but Tuesday’s storm system may bring wintry precipitation to the same spots that saw wintry weather this past Tuesday (meaning, not us). Tuesday’s front will drop temperatures into the low 40s for highs with rain chances near 60%, but the front will stall just to our south.
The stalling front paves the way for an area of low pressure to move in from the west. The approaching storm system may actually help to keep freezing temperatures to our north, however it’ll be a close call for us with temperatures both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning starting out close to but likely ABOVE freezing and then warming up into the mid-40s during the afternoon. As of right now, we do not have wintry precipitation in our forecast, however that is subject to change since wintry weather is notoriously difficult to forecast this far out with any degree of accuracy. Regardless of temperatures and precipitation type, precipitation chances stay near 60% Tuesday and Wednesday before dropping to 40% Thursday. If wintry weather occurs in our area, the most likely timeframe would be Wednesday night and Thursday morning and the most likely precipitation type would be a rain/sleet mixture. Both freezing rain and snow look very unlikely. The final storm system clears out Thursday morning. We may not see returning full sunshine until after next weekend, but the faucet should shut off by Friday with temperatures warming up to near 60° next weekend too.
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