Late-Friday severe storms for some with literal dust for others

The duality of Texas’ weather will be ever present today across our 100 by 200 mile slice of the Lone Star State as a strong storm system rips across the country. A widespread severe weather outbreak is expected today from the Midwest into the Deep South, but we will thankfully be on the tail end of the severe weather risk. A level 2 risk of severe storms arrives this afternoon along and east of I-35 for the potential of strong straight-line wind gusts and large hail. The tornado risk is there too but is quite low. On the other side of our area, winds will switch to come from the west ahead of today’s front. Since today’s storm system is notably on the strong side, it’ll kick up dust from West Texas and bring it into our atmosphere mainly west of I-35 late-day. Outside of the severe storms and hazy skies, it’ll honestly be a fairly nice day. Morning wind gusts near 40 MPH out of the south will decrease to near 30 MPH gusts midday and into the afternoon with winds gradually shifting to the west along and west of I-35. The wind shift will pull in dust and likely completely shut down rain chances from roughly Killeen to Gatesville to Meridian westward. Temperatures in this area will warm into the mid-80s this afternoon, but cities and towns along I-35 and east of the interstate will warm into the mid-to-upper 80s. Today’s storm chance starts around 3 PM and will last until roughly about 8 PM. These storms will mostly, if not entirely, stay east of I-35 but they’ll quickly strengthen. Storms exits around sunset today, but today’s front will lose some punch and it’ll actually stall just to our south tomorrow morning.

The stalling front allows for rain chances to return Sunday, but Saturday should be a really nice day. We’re expecting morning lows in the upper 40s and low 50s to warm into the mid-to-upper 70s with generally mostly sunny skies. The stalled front lifts north across our area as a warm front Sunday morning bringing mostly cloudy skies back. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, and we’re expecting a 50% chance of late day and evening showers and non-severe storms to move in. If you live west of I-35, and especially so west of Highway 281, you may not see much rain Sunday, but a quick quarter-inch of rain could fall east of I-35. Sunday’s warm front will propel highs to near 90° both on Monday and Tuesday as we gear up for yet another frontal passage. Tuesday’s front likely passes through after sunset so the risk of storms will stay away from Central Texas, but this front will also stall close to our area. Temperatures will dip into the upper 60s and low 70s from next Wednesday through Easter, but the reason is because of higher rain chances. The stalled front will serve as the focus for likely widespread and locally heavy rain. Rain chances near 30% Wednesday will climb to 50% Thursday and then climb to near 70% on Friday before slowly dropping the rest of Easter weekend. We usually don’t raise rain chances that far out that high, but we’re getting a strong signal that a good soaking rain is on the way late next week. If Tuesday’s front stalls farther to our south, the heaviest rainfall totals likely will be focused more toward Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. An early look at rainfall totals next week places us with potentially near 2″ of rain in spots by Easter.

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