Rainy season briefly on hold

April is one of Central Texas’ rainiest months and it’s during this time of year that we get much of the rainfall required to get through the summer months without falling into extreme drought. Unfortunately, we’re already in extreme drought conditions from last year’s lack of rain and the upcoming dry spell isn’t what we want to see. The good news is that weather conditions will be quite seasonable for quite a while but without a ton of rainfall. High temperatures today and tomorrow in the upper 70s and low 80s will be joined by maybe some patchy early morning fog with morning lows in the low 50s. East winds today will start to turn southerly Thursday and really increase on Friday as our next storm system approaches. Friday’s highs in the low 80s will be joined by south winds gusting near 30 MPH, partly cloudy skies, and joined by a late-day storm chance too. Friday’s storm risk is conditional. We have all of the ingredients in place for gusty winds, hail, or even a stray tornado, but we may not have enough of a spark to break through the layer of warm air aloft, called the cap, that prevents storm development. Should a stray strong storm or two form late in the day, all types of severe weather will be possible, but rain chances are only near 20%.

Regardless of whether or not we see storms late Friday, we’ll potentially see another round of storms Saturday as a cold front surges through. Saturday’s front arrives midday which will help to prevent widespread thunderstorms from forming. We’ll call Saturday’s rain chances near 30% with the best chance of storms coming in the Brazos Valley. Saturday’s storms will likely stay sub-severe and the rain should completely clear the area before 4 PM. With south winds turning northerly, we’ll get drier air moving in, but the cooler air won’t arrive until Sunday. Saturday’s highs in the low 80s will drop into the mid-to-upper 70s Sunday. Highs will hover in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s next week leading into what could be our next chance for storms Tuesday and Wednesday especially. Rainfall chances are fairly low next week for now, but forecast model data is hinting that next week’s storms could bring us a quarter-to-half inch of rain.

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