Big temperature swings this weekend with high rain chances maybe returning next week

Published: Apr. 14, 2023 at 6:01 AM CDT
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It’s Friday so we’re already starting out the day with great news, but we have more good news coming from the weather department. Although rain chances stay limited in the near term and will likely stay limited for a good portion of next week, forecast model data is starting to hint at a more significant storm system blowing through late next week that may hopefully bring us multi-inch rainfall totals. So far this year, we’ve really struggled to get those storm systems a week or more out to actually hold together when the reach us so we’re hoping to buck the trend next week. In the near term, we’re expecting big temperature swings and maybe even some storms too. Today’s storm chances remain near 10% and it remains highly unlikely that we’ll have any storms form. Morning temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s late this afternoon under partly-to-mostly cloudy skies. Highs could climb closer to 90° west of Highway 281 as the dry line approaches our area. While the dry line could spark a strong thunderstorm with large hail and gusty winds late this afternoon, it likely won’t be enough of a spark to get storms going. If a storm forms late today, it’ll likely dissipate before 10 PM but there’s also a chance for showers and non-severe storms overnight tonight. Overnight rain chances are near 20%.

Rain chances climb to 30% Saturday as a cold front eases into the area. Saturday’s front is arriving a bit slower than previously thought so that bodes better for our storm chances, but storms will likely remain entirely confined east of I-35. Morning lows in the mid-to-upper 60s will warm into the mid-to-upper 80s as dry westerly winds return just ahead of tomorrow’s afternoon front. We’ll see morning clouds with returning sunshine in the afternoon for many of us. After about 5 PM, tomorrow’s front will cause storms to form east of I-35. The storms are most likely from I-45 southeastward into Falls County and then into Milam, Robertson, and Leon County too. Even though storms will clear by 9 PM and the window for storms is small, storms late tomorrow could produce strong wind gusts, hail, and maybe even a stray tornado.

Although highs may warm close to 90° Saturday, the toasty temperatures will be shoved away behind the front as high temperatures slide into the mid-70s under sunny skies Sunday. Next week’s forecast doesn’t call for any exceptional heat, but moisture will be returning by Tuesday which will bring us extra clouds and some rain chances. As of now, the best chance for storms will be Tuesday as the dry line could kick up stronger storms later in the day. Storm chances should remain low Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, but we won’t see a cold front move through to clear the humidity out so a stray afternoon storm will remain possible every day. A slightly better opportunity for rain may arrive late next week and next weekend. It’s far too early for specifics, but most of our forecast model data is suggesting a strong cold front will barrel through Friday or Saturday. The front could even stall and keep rain chances elevated next Sunday too. Multi-inch rainfall totals could be possible along with high temperatures dipping over 10° below average, but nothing is set in stone just yet.

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