A stormy 48 hours ahead with multiple severe storm chances!
Before we get into the meat and potatoes of the forecast, I want to preface the forecast by saying that the confidence in storm timing and coverage, especially today, is lower than normal. Although severe storms are expected today and tomorrow, the better day for severe storms will likely be Wednesday but today’s storms will have an influence on tomorrow’s storms. A level 2 severe weather risk remains in place today but the best storm chances have shifted west. The level 2 severe storm risk near and west of I-35 is for very large hail, gusty winds, and maybe a stray tornado. East of I-35, the severe weather risk today is lower but certainly not zero. A warm front will pass through the area during the daytime hours today and that could be enough to kick off storms by itself, but it’ll be the stalling out of that front across our area that will keep the storm chances around tonight and especially tomorrow. The front starts to push in as early as around lunch time and there’s certainly a chance that a storm bubbles up along the front. Should that happen, the storm could quickly strengthen and may produce not only large hail but strong straight-line winds and maybe even a tornado too. Midday storm chances are very limited and are only capped near 20%. Late-day storm chances, after 5 PM, will be slightly higher. Storms are most likely to form west of I-35 and also south of Highway 190/I-14 but storms should still stay fairly isolated. Storms that form in West Texas this afternoon could also ride along the stalled front and could move into our area during the overnight hours. Most of tonight’s storms, should they even impact our area, will exit after midnight.
The stalled front sticks around Wednesday and an approaching area of low pressure will ride along the front and bring us the highest storm chances we’ll see from this system. Morning temperatures near 60° will warm into the mid-to-upper 70s in the afternoon. Storm chances remain limited early on, but those chances will increase in the afternoon as an area of low pressure draws closer to our area. Widely scattered to numerous storms could start as early as about 3 PM Wednesday, but better chances arrive after 5 PM and especially after sunset. A few different rounds of thunderstorms are expected ahead of an arriving front Wednesday afternoon/early evening and then again Wednesday night as the front actually arrives. Wednesday’s severe storm risk is higher than Tuesday. The tornado risk remains low but not zero and hail could potentially be near egg sized (around 2″ in diameter), but the main concern with Wednesday’s storms is the potential for strong straight-line wind gusts. Wednesday’s severe weather risk is at a level 3 for the majority of our area.
Wednesday night’s storms will gradually pull away from our area and we’ll be mostly dry by daybreak Thursday as cooler air rushes in. A few stray showers are expected Thursday morning but we’ll see the return of some sunshine late Thursday as highs warm only into the low 70s. Thursday will be another cooler day, but south winds ahead of another front with potentially another storm risk Friday will push temperatures to near 80° to close out the work week. Friday’s front should clear through the area with a 40% chance of showers and storms, but the back side of the area of low pressure bringing Friday’s front could bring us some scattered light rain Saturday. Rain chances are near 20% Saturday and gusty north winds will keep highs in the upper 60s. If you’re looking for a perfect day for weather this weekend, you’re looking for Sunday! Morning temperatures in the upper 40s will warm to near 80° late in the afternoon.
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