Two separate risks of severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow

Tonight’s storm risk is low, but not zero, for isolated strong/severe storms. Truly what that means is the atmosphere has a lot of the ingredients to make storms happen, but it will be more of a conditional risk today. If... if storms can get going, they can turn severe quickly with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Thunderstorms could have some rotation and that’s something to monitor for a low-end tornado risk, should that rotation extend to the surface. There will be a warm layer up above that storms will have to fight against to develop. Storm chances this evening will greatly depend on if they can bubble up and overcome the warm layer aloft (the CAP). Most of tonight’s storms, should they even impact our area, will exit around midnight. While an isolated storm or two is possible this evening, the more likely round of stormy weather comes Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night.

Tomorrow: A stalled front will keep the atmosphere unsettled and will pave the way for strong thunderstorms -- most of the day should be storm free, but late afternoon, evening, and overnight severe storms are expected! We bump up the storm risk from a level 2/5 today to 3/5 Wednesday. The atmosphere stays locked-n-loaded for storm chances tomorrow, but we will add in some extra dynamics with an area of low pressure and a cold front. Wednesday morning is calm with temperatures near 60° with the afternoon warming into the mid-to-upper 70s in the afternoon. Widely scattered to numerous storms could start as early as about 3 PM Wednesday, but better chances arrive after 5 PM and especially after sunset. Wednesday’s severe storm risk is higher than Tuesday. Once again, the tornado risk remains low but not zero. Hail could potentially be near egg sized (around 2″ in diameter), but the main concern with Wednesday’s storms is the potential for strong straight-line winds in excess of XX mph. Keep a watch on the weather tomorrow & tomorrow night - it won’t be just one round of rain. There are a few different pulses of rain/storms possible before our cold front actually clears the area.

Thursday, Friday, & weekend: A few stray showers are expected Thursday morning, but sunshine returns Thursday. Thursday will be another cooler day with highs around 70. Friday is warmer (near 80) and brings another storm risk with a cold front on the books. Friday’s front should clear through the area with scattered showers and storms. There could be some light, lingering rain Saturday but the bigger story will be the cooler & windy weather! Saturday’s highs are in the 60s once again and winds will be out of the north about XX mph. If you’re looking for a perfect day for weather this weekend, you’re looking for Sunday! Morning temperatures in the upper 40s will warm to near 80° late in the afternoon.

Stay with the KWTX Weather Authority Team as we track more active weather and make-sure-you-monitor storms. A great way to do that from home is with our free, KWTX Weather app. Download here!

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