WACO, Texas (KWTX) - Not even 48 hours removed from our last round of severe thunderstorms, our next round of severe storms will arrive this afternoon and evening. An eerily similar setup to Wednesday’s severe weather is in place today and we could again be contending with extremely large hail, strong wind gusts, and potentially a tornado or two.

Very large hail and severe wind gusts are today’s main severe weather concern.

Nearly all of Central Texas is under a level 3 severe weather risk this afternoon and evening.... — Nearly all of Central Texas is under a level 3 severe weather risk this afternoon and evening. The level 3 risk covers the potential for very large hail and strong straight-line wind gusts, but a stray few tornadoes are possible too.(KWTX, SPC)

Today’s overall severe weather risk is at a level 3 of 5, the enhanced category, and the concerns with today’s storms are the same as Wednesday; very large hail and strong wind gusts are the main threat.

Today’s hail risk is at a level 3 of 5 for the entire area with the greatest concern for hail coming along and west of I-35. Like with Wednesday’s storms, the average hail size will likely be between quarter-size and golf-ball size but there should be instances, especially before 6 PM, of hail approaching the size of baseballs.

While the wind gust potential is also at a level 3, the greatest threat for damaging straight-line winds won’t take over as the dominant type of severe storms until storms turn into a line. The main straight-line wind threat is highest near and especially east of I-35.

As far as the tornado potential goes, it’s there. Fortunately, today’s tornado risk is lower than it was Wednesday, today at a level 2 of 5, but the tornado potential is certainly not zero. The tornado risk is likely highest along and west of I-35 with the isolated storms, but tornadoes could also embed within the line of storms too as it rakes across the area.

There should be a sharp rainfall gradient from west-to-east with the lowest rainfall totals... — There should be a sharp rainfall gradient from west-to-east with the lowest rainfall totals coming where storms initially form near and west of Highway 281. For most of Central Texas, especially along and east of I-35, rainfall totals could approach or likely exceed 1"!(KWTX, WPC)

Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible too. Storms will have at least some forward momentum to them, but prolific rainfall totals near and especially east of I-35 will cause nuisance flooding. Recent rains means the ground is saturated so flooding is a bit more likely today compared to Wednesday. Areas that see nuisance flooding will likely also see nuisance flooding today. The highest rainfall totals, approaching or exceeding 2″, are possible near and especially east of I-35.

More large hail? Why?

While it's certainly possible to see hail over baseball size, the most likely hail sizes today... — While it's certainly possible to see hail over baseball size, the most likely hail sizes today will be up to golf-ball size hail with the strongest storms producing baseball size hail. Today's best hail risk is along and west of I-35.(KWTX)

Texas and much of the Plains are a hot bed for hail storms this time of year and it’s due to the wild temperature swings that we normally see.

Severe thunderstorms need wind shear and instability to form and grow and we’re going to have a LOT of both in the atmosphere this afternoon.

This map shows what's called CAPE which stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. The... — This map shows what's called CAPE which stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. The higher the CAPE, the higher the instability in the atmosphere and we'll have a lot of it today ahead of our afternoon thunderstorms.(KWTX)

Of course, air is colder than freezing aloft in the atmosphere so the rain within a thunderstorm will freeze. Thanks to a lot of instability, air rises in thunderstorms VERY quickly and strongly. The stronger the updraft, the longer rain and hail remains trapped in a thunderstorm. The suspended hailstones bounce into liquid rain and continue to grow larger and larger before the hailstone eventually becomes too heavy for the updraft to sustain and then the hail falls to the ground.

Storms arrive right in time for tonight’s evening rush hour

Severe thunderstorms are expected to blow through Central Texas this afternoon and evening.... — Severe thunderstorms are expected to blow through Central Texas this afternoon and evening. Storms start to form around 2 PM and then will blossom by 3 PM. Initial isolated storms carrying a very large hail threat should quickly turn into a line of storms that'll rake across the area. The severe storms move through the I-35 corridor right for the evening commute with storms crossing over I-35 by 7 PM. Severe weather comes to a close by 9 PM for nearly everyone.(KWTX)

Not only is the severe weather setup for today’s storms similar to Wednesday, but the timing of today’s storms will be similar to Wednesday too.

Isolated storms will likely begin to form around 2 PM and it’ll take about an hour for those storms to get going to turn severe. By 3 PM, isolated severe storms should be around, especially west of I-35, as a cold front swings through the area. Again, these isolated storms will carry the greatest potential for very large hail with a risk of tornadoes and strong wind gusts too.

Sometime between 4 PM and 6 PM, isolated storms will attach to an approaching cold front and the storms will turn into a line of storms. The hail risk remains with the line of storms, as does the tornado risk, but the primary severe weather hazard switches to straight-line winds which could approach 75 MPH in the strongest storms. The line of storms should approach I-35 between 5 PM and 6 PM and it’ll be exceptionally dangerous to travel during that time where the storms are. Consider either delaying your departure from work or pushing it up to make sure you’re not trying to drive into severe storms with hail just to start the weekend.

By 7 PM, severe storms will push east of I-35 with a continued strong wind gust and hail threat. The tornado threat after storms cross over I-35 will be lower but still not zero! Thankfully, today’s storms will quickly surge our of the area and we’ll likely be severe storm free by 10 PM. Rain can still linger until as late as about 3 AM, but severe storms will be done before many of us go to sleep.

Stay with the KWTX Weather Authority Team as we track more active weather and make-sure-you-monitor storms. A great way to do that from home is with our free, KWTX Weather app. Download here!