Nearly daily storm chances return Thursday through Thursday

Published: May. 2, 2023 at 6:02 AM CDT
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Look. We still are in the middle of the ongoing near two-year drought and rain is still needed. Given the ongoing drought, we’re not going to wish for dry weather, but we’re seeing the signs of a “stuck” weather pattern across Texas where the dryline will kick up thunderstorms daily in the state and many of those storms could impact our area. We won’t be under the threat of rain or storms today or tomorrow, but we’ll start to see the makings of the forthcoming storminess with clouds moving in. Expect partly-to-mostly cloudy skies today with highs warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. We’ll get some morning sunshine, but the sunshine should be a relatively short supply. We’ll likely get a bit more sunshine Wednesday and that’ll help to boost our highs into the low-to-mid 80s.

Rain and storm chances climb to 40% Thursday and will remain between 30% and 50% each day until at least next Thursday. We’re not expecting any storm systems to move close to our area so the weather pattern will remain stagnant and unchanging. For our weather forecast, that means that warmer and more humid conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and morning lows in the upper 60s will stay in place. It also means that the dry line could, each day, kick up scattered storms. Dry line storms aren’t anything like storms along a cold front or with any upper-level storm systems and get progressively more difficult to precisely forecast the farther into the future you’re trying to go. We are expecting storms every day after Thursday, but not everyone will see storms. Thursday’s storm chances are near 40% in the late-afternoon hours and near 50% after sunset. Storms along the dryline will fire up west of Abilene and San Angelo after 3 PM and will then enter into Central Texas after 6 PM. Storms may contain large hail and strong wind gusts but will be arriving close to and after sunset so they’ll be steadily weakening as they push in. By 10 PM, storms should be over Thursday. The dry line will be closer to our area Friday so rain chances climb to 50% with storms forming after 4 PM. Storms may impact more of our area Friday since they’ll form closer to Central Texas. Rain chances slide a bit to 40% Saturday as storms are again expected to fire up along the dryline but could be a bit more isolated and may not necessarily move through our area. The storm chances next week could go up or down as we get closer to next week, but temperatures should remain pretty consistent and humidity isn’t going to change much with afternoon heat index values approaching or exceeding 90° every day from Friday onward.

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