1″+ rainfall totals could be on the way for most with daily storm chances starting tomorrow

Published: May. 3, 2023 at 6:03 AM CDT
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May, the traditionally rainiest month in Central Texas, may live up to the hype this year! Instead of waiting for strong storm systems to push across the Rockies and into the Plains, we’re expecting the dryline to park itself just west of our area starting tomorrow which keeps daily thunderstorm chances around. As we’ll detail in the next paragraph, not everyone will see rain or storms every day, but we’ll all have the opportunity for storms. Today’s the setup day for tomorrow’s storm chances. We’re expecting generally easterly winds to shift a bit more from the south this afternoon which will pull moisture into the atmosphere. The dryline, which will be the spark for nearly every day’s shower and thunderstorm chances, will stay far to our west. We’ll see partly-to-mostly cloudy skies today with the extra sunshine boosting morning temperatures in the low 60s into the low 80s this afternoon. Both our morning temperatures and our afternoon highs will be very close to average today.

Tomorrow’s forecast is unchanged with storm chances returning late in the afternoon. We’ll again see partly-to-mostly cloudy skies with morning temperatures in the low 60s warming into the low 80s late in the day. The dry line should start to spark storms roughly between San Angelo and Abilene around 4 PM. We could see a stray storm closer to home around that time, but we’re generally going to stay rain and storm free until after 6 PM. The scattered storms forming along the dryline will push into Central Texas after that time and will gradually push through. Strong wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours are the main threats with Thursday’s storms. Storms will slowly weaken after sunset as they push across our area so the best severe storm chances will be along and west of Highway 281. Strong storms are possible elsewhere locally but the odds of severe weather go down as the storms push eastward. Storms could approach I-35 after 8 PM and will exit our area before midnight.

Although the dry line will be far enough away to keep the initial round of storms out of our area, the dryline surges closer to Central Texas Friday and will generally stall each day just west of our area putting us in a favorable position for isolated-to-scattered afternoon storms. The rain chances Friday, near 40%, won’t change from Thursday, but the temperatures will as highs surge into the low 90s! Heat index values Friday and Saturday will likely climb into the upper 90s too making you kind of wish for rain to cool us down. With the dryline hanging around late in the afternoon, storms are expected to fire up and impact our area after 4 PM. The threats remain the same with our main concern coming with gusty winds and hail, but the storms arriving earlier in the late-afternoon means storms will rake across the area for Friday’s evening rush and into the early evening hours too before likely coming to a close by 10 PM. The same thing is expected Saturday with scattered late-afternoon and early evening storms. Since storms aren’t firing up with a bigger storm system, like along a cold front, it’s extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where these storms will form and how long they’ll last the farther into the future you’re trying to predict. Since the dryline will be close and since small waves of energy will likely pass over our area every day, we’re keeping the storm chances around from Sunday through next Friday at least. Widespread quarter-to-half inch rainfall totals are expected through Saturday with isolated higher totals under downpours, but continued storm chances next week could bring many of us 1″ to over 2″ of rain through the end of next week.

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