Like a record on repeat...

The possibility for scattered afternoon and evening storms hangs around for at least a week
Published: May. 4, 2023 at 5:47 AM CDT
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With 10 days of storm chances between 30% and 50%, you’d probably expect today’s text forecast to be long and drawn out, but things will be quite simple and straight-forward; a stagnant weather pattern with a dryline to our west and near-daily waves of energy moving over it will bring storm chances to at least some of us every day through at least next Wednesday and likely longer than that. We have a pretty good handle on the storm chances through Sunday as daily afternoon storms bubble up and move through during the afternoon and evening hours, but the forecast gets a bit murky starting Monday as the daily storm chances continue but become harder to pinpoint. Today’s weather features mostly cloudy skies with temperatures starting out in the mid-60s. Even without a lot of sunshine, late-day highs will warm into the low-to-mid 80s. Storms today will start to bubble up west of Highway 281 around 3 PM and storms should mostly stay all west of I-35 through 6 PM. After 6 PM, storms will break away from the approaching dryline and will move through. Storms will gradually weaken from west-to-east as the sun goes down and severe storms should be over before 10 PM with rain exiting by midnight. That same forecast, with scattered storms forming mid-afternoon and gradually moving through during the early evening hours, is basically copy and pasted to every single day through at least next Wednesday.

The scattered storm chances will vary from one day to the next with storm chances staying generally at 40% or 50% today through Monday, but the temperatures generally won’t. After today’s low-to-mid 80s, a big boost in temperatures thanks to a ridge of high pressure will move in and send highs close to 90° from Friday through at least next Tuesday. Afternoon dew points will remain in the low 70s so heat index values are expected to top out in the mid-to-upper 90s every day. While the weather pattern should hold through at least the beginning of next week, there’s some signs of a legitimate storm system moving in late next week. Instead of the isolated-to-scattered storms, an actual storm system could bring more widespread rain to our area and (eventually) kick the daily storm chances out. When that’ll happen is yet to be seen, but 10 days of scattered storm chances could bring many of us between a half-inch and over two inches of rain. That’s great for the drought and especially because much of the heaviest rain could fall in locations that need it most.

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