Give it up for day 2 of late-day storm chances!

Published: May. 5, 2023 at 5:47 AM CDT
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If you missed out on yesterday’s storms, don’t worry! Today’s only the second day of what’s expected to be at least another 9 days of rain and storm chances. While the near-term weather pattern continues to bring us the possibility of scattered showers and storms through at least Tuesday, the mid-week and late-week weather pattern next week may lead to lower severe weather chances but higher chances for steadier rain. Today’s forecast is mostly unchanged from yesterday, but the one change is a big one: more heat. Morning temperatures today starting out in the upper 60s and low 70s will warm into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon with partly-to-mostly cloudy skies overhead. The big boost in temperatures will be joined by lingering humidity to send heat index values into the upper 90s this afternoon. It’ll be so warm and humid that you’ll probably be wishing for storms to form. From roughly about 3 PM to 9 PM is when we’ll have our primary severe storm risk as isolated-to-scattered storms bubble up, especially near and west of I-35. While everyone will have the potential for storms today, the favored location may be in spots that didn’t see yesterday’s storms so at least we’re spreading the wealth. While some heavy rain is expected with these storms and that’ll help the ongoing drought, storms could also contain large hail and gusty winds. We’ll also have to be mindful of flash flooding since these storms will be prolific rain-makers.

The latest forecast model data suggests that today will be the stormiest day out of the next three. We still have late-day and evening rain and storm chances around both on Saturday and Sunday, but storm chances are near 30% since the scattered storms may form farther away from Central Texas. Saturday’s morning temperatures in the upper 60s will warm into the upper 80s and low 90s again with a 30% chance of storms. Saturday’s heat index values will again be in the upper 90s but a slight drop in temperatures and a slight drop in humidity Sunday will be to our benefit as highs reach the mid-to-upper 80s and heat index values top out around 95°. The weekend storm chances near 30% stay there Monday and actually drop a bit to 20% Tuesday. We’ll again be stuck with the mid/late afternoon storm chances through at least Tuesday with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. After Tuesday, a legitimate storm system could move into the Plains and hang around for a few days. While we’re still too far away for specifics, the weather pattern looks to bring us daily storm chances that may be more rain maker than severe weather maker. With clouds and rain chances remaining decently high, temperatures may be below average in the low-80s late next week.

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