Multi-inch rainfall totals expected area wide through Mother’s Day

The daily severe storm chances back off as flooding becomes the main concern late-week
Published: May. 8, 2023 at 6:09 AM CDT
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The old adage of ending a flood with a drought and ending a drought with a flood looks to be coming true. The rainfall totals with the storms of late has been decent, generally producing around an inch of rain every day somewhere in our area, but multiple rounds of rain over the course of at least a week should bring all of us 2″ to 4″ of rain with isolated higher totals approaching or exceeding 6″ certainly possible too. Today, with only a 30% chance of rain, will likely be the driest day of the week. We may see some sprinkles this morning but it’ll overall be dry with morning temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s. Temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 80s with some low 90s west of Highway 281 showing up too. While unlikely, it’s possible for a few stray showers to bubble up midday but the best chances arrive this afternoon and evening. A few stray storms are possible east of I-35 late this afternoon, but the main storm chance comes from storms forming over the Concho Valley and Hill Country to our west. Those storms could impact us as early as 4 PM, but the highest rain and storm chances will be west of I-35 and west of Highway 281 close to and after sunset. Large hail to half-dollar size and 60 MPH wind gusts may join the strongest storms as they move in with the bulk of today’s storms exiting before midnight.

A developing area of low pressure off of today’s storms will likely spark widely scattered afternoon showers and storms Tuesday. Rain chances are near 60% and while severe storms are possible, the overall severe weather threat remains very low with maybe one or two storms producing strong wind gusts and some quarter-size hail. Shower and storm chances start to climb around lunch time and will remain elevated through the afternoon and early evening hours with the best rain chance coming near and especially east of I-35. Tomorrow’s storms will likely produce isolated rainfall totals of an inch or higher in the Brazos Valley and still more is yet to come. Rain and storm chances remain high Wednesday, near 50%, but much of Wednesday’s rain may be left over rain from Tuesday and the best shot for rain could be in the first part of the day with us potentially drying out late in the day. Highs will take a notable hit too dropping into the low 80s Tuesday and then falling into the upper 70s Wednesday. Through Wednesday, rainfall totals of 1″ to 2″ are possible for most of us.

Another 1″ to 3″+ should fall from Thursday through at least next Monday. The same area of low pressure that sparks Tuesday and Wednesday’s rain will be lingering in East Texas. The remnant boundaries from the previous day’s storms will fire up more storms the next day. These storms will likely start near and east of I-35 and potentially closer to Austin, but those storms will fan out and spread across much of the state thanks to relatively weak upper-level winds. Scattered showers and storms Thursday and Friday should come to a close overnight, but Saturday, Sunday, and maybe even into Monday is when the rain will be possible at any point in the day. Y’all might want to bring those outdoor Mother’s Day plans indoors!

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