Waves of rain through the weekend brings us a flooding risk

Published: May. 12, 2023 at 6:09 AM CDT|Updated: May. 12, 2023 at 12:27 PM CDT
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Mother’s Day weekend is shaping up to be a soggy one across Central Texas and actually across much of Texas too. With an upper-level storm system moving in and meandering for a few days, numerous showers and thunderstorms will form and tap into the moisture-rich environment to provide multi-inch rainfall totals to the state. Through the next 3 days, we’re anticipating between 1″ and 4″ locally with higher totals possible especially west of I-35, but rainfall totals could exceed 6″ to 8″ south of I-10 so you won’t be able to escape the rain if you’re traveling south. Today will be the transition day into the rainier weather pattern with a few scattered showers and storms expected during the daytime hours today. Today’s rain chances are near 40% with a few scattered showers and storms bubbling up this afternoon. Today’s scattered storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and even some small hail, but the daytime severe weather chances aren’t terribly high. Here’s some good news for you; we may get a decent amount of dry time late this afternoon and early this evening so your Friday night plans should be mostly rain-free, but there’s still a chance for a few stray showers. Much higher rain and storm chances return after midnight tonight as thunderstorms from the northwest and south move in. These storms will be severe before they arrive but they’ll likely weaken somewhat as they arrive. Still, especially after 1 AM, strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible.

Although we’re expecting high rainfall totals, the potential for flooding, and maybe a few strong storms this weekend, it’s highly unlikely that we will see an all-day rainfall. We will get dry time this weekend, but waves of rain will push through until at least Sunday and the previous day’s storms will help dictate where the best rain chances will be the next day. After the first big wave arrives overnight into Saturday morning, we’re only expecting scattered off-and-on rain through much of the day. Another bigger wave should arrive late in the day Saturday into Saturday night with more widely scattered off and on rain through Sunday. We’re expecting between 1″ and 4″ from east-to-west across our area and the potential for dangerous flash flooding and river/creek/stream flooding will get higher with each passing day. Highs this weekend will be close to 80° thanks to the rain moving through. Another 50% chance of rain is around Monday, but Monday is when we transition away from the waves of heavy rain into more scattered daily storm chances. A cold front moves in and stalls our Monday so our rain chances are near 50%. We’re keeping a 40% chance of rain around Tuesday and Wednesday as scattered daytime storms are possible. Thursday and Friday is when the weather pattern may finally break as a cold front slides through. It’s NOT cold front season, so a front moving all the way through our area could be a pipe dream, however most forecast models are showing a clean frontal passage dropping temperatures and dropping humidity next weekend.

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