The faucet has mostly shut off...

Published: May. 22, 2023 at 5:24 AM CDT
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Although the first two-thirds of the month of May have been decently rainy and decently cool-ish, the last ten days of the month will likely feature steadily warming temperatures and maybe some rain here and there. The upper-levels of the atmosphere will again be gummed up by a stuck area of high pressure that’ll build across the Central Plains during the course of the week. Since the area of high pressure won’t be moving much, there likely won’t be much of a change in the weather from one day to the next with a few exceptions. Today should be a wonderful day of weather with mostly sunny skies and comfortably warm temperatures. Morning lows in the upper 50s and low 60s will warm into low-to-mid 80s this afternoon. There will be a few clouds from time-to-time, sure, but generally sunny skies are expected. Rain stays away today and likely tomorrow too, but pop-up thunderstorms may form in just the right position near the Red River this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon for those storms to reach us overnight. The overnight storm chances tonight and tomorrow night are between 20% and 30%, but the storms will likely completely dissipate before they even arrive. Even if the storms don’t dissipate, they’ll be weakening so severe weather isn’t expected.

We’re expecting dry conditions through Tuesday but our next disturbance will be riding through the Panhandle and North Texas Tuesday night and could arrive in our area Wednesday. The location of where the most widespread rain will be Wednesday depends on where thunderstorms dissipate both Monday night and Tuesday night, but the heaviest rain should stay to our north. Wednesday’s rain chances are elevated, near 40%, as a few pop-up showers and non-severe storms move in from the northwest. Rain won’t be widespread and it likely won’t last for long, but the extra clouds should drop highs from the mid-80s Tuesday into the upper 70s and low 80s Wednesday. Although a ridge of high pressure is expected to bring the atmosphere to a halt, the position of the ridge of high pressure will be in the perfect location for a storm system in Eastern Canada to retrograde back to the southwest later this week. The upper-level low likely parks itself across the Deep South Thursday into at least the start of next week. Since we’re going to be stuck in between the low to our east and the ridge of high pressure to our north, we’re likely going to see dry conditions late this week and through the weekend, but a few pop-up showers are possible. Slightly better and more organized rain chances could return around or just after Memorial Day as highs warm close to average in the upper 80s and low 90s.

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