Welcome to overnight storm season!
One of the final things to happen in the atmosphere before we switch over to the typically dry and hot summers in Texas is the return of overnight storm systems. These storm systems, called mesoscale convective systems or an MCS, occur when afternoon storms bubble up, congeal into a complex of storms, and move with the upper-level jet stream. We saw one MCS move through Monday night into Tuesday morning and we’ll likely see another MCS move through tonight into Wednesday morning with potential more overnight storm systems in the not-so-distant future too. The early morning rain moving through this morning should exit the area by 9 AM with most everyone drying out before 8 AM. We’ll likely see lingering clouds in the morning with the overnight storm system departing, but we’re also expecting to see the return of at least partly cloudy skies. Temperatures in the mid-60s this morning should reach the mid-80s this afternoon and it will both be and feel hotter than it was yesterday. It’s not impossible to see a stray pop-up storm form this afternoon and it’s entirely possible for said storm to bring gusty winds and hail, but the afternoon storm chances are near 10%. Storms should blossom late today and tonight west and northwest of our area and will move into Central Texas after midnight. Storms overnight could bring gusty winds and hail too but the overall severe weather risk is only at a level 1. Heavy rain is also expected, especially west of I-35, as the storms move through and we could see just from tonight’s storms alone up to or even more than an inch of rain. While the heaviest rain is expected west of I-35, storms could still produce at least a quarter-inch of rain east of I-35. Storms will be weakening as they cross I-35 but they should hang around for the entire journey across Central Texas.
A weak frontal boundary follows Tuesday’s overnight storms and the remnant boundaries left over from Tuesday night’s storms will bring us a 40% chance of scattered showers and storms during the daytime hours Wednesday. The specific timing with Wednesday’s storms partially depends on Tuesday night’s storms as we could maybe see the highest rain chances early in the day or later in the afternoon. As of now, it looks like the most organized shower and thunderstorm activity arrives in the afternoon, but morning rain is possible too. With mostly cloudy skies and the threat of rain, highs likely only reach the upper 70s and low 80s. Wednesday brings us the best chance for showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the week but we can’t completely shake the rain either. We’ll carry between a 20% and 30% rain chance Thursday through Saturday. Rain chances drop to 10% Sunday, but rain chances will climb to at least 30% starting on Memorial Day and lasting into a good chunk of the week. With higher rain chances next week thanks to afternoon and evening scattered storms, high temperatures next week may continue to remain below average. Highs in the low-to-mid 80s are expected every single day through next Thursday. Yes, next week’s temperature forecast mostly depends on what the rain coverage will be, but most forecast model data points to continued cooler-than-normal high temperatures. The average high climbs to and stays at 90° or above from May 31st to September 20th, so any sort of colder-than-normal weather is well welcomed!
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