Some rain for some of us this holiday weekend

Published: May. 26, 2023 at 6:09 AM CDT
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It seems likely every Memorial Day features a chance for rain (which is pretty normal for late May), and this Memorial Day is no exception. Historically speaking, there’s about a 29% chance of rain on Memorial Day and we have a 30% chance of rain in the forecast Monday. Although we’re expecting a “normal” chance for rain, we’re not expecting average temperatures since clouds will help to keep our temperatures suppressed. This weekend’s weather will be driven by a few different area of high and low pressure across North America. A high over the Great Lakes is blocking an area of low pressure from moving out of the Southeastern U.S. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure along the West Coast is being blocked from moving by a ridge of high pressure over Baja California. This low is sending energy into the state for storm chances, but the high/low combo across the Eastern U.S. is keeping rain confined to the Panhandle and West Texas. Eventually, the atmosphere will get unstuck and the West Texas rain will get a bit closer to Central Texas. Storms stay away today and tomorrow with pretty similar days of weather in the forecast. Both today and tomorrow will feature morning lows generally in the mid-60s with some low 60s while highs warm into the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies.

The changes to Central Texas’ forecast comes late Saturday as the stuck upper-level disturbances across the continent finally get a push forward. With easterly winds aloft weakening Sunday and Monday, the door opens to a few scattered showers and storms moving in. Sunday’s forecast calls for highs in the low-to-mid 80s with partly-to-mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances are only near 20% and the majority of the rain should stay west of I-35. Sunday should be a relatively dry day, but Monday could be a bit rainier. Temperatures will only reach the upper 70s and low 80s for highs with mostly cloudy skies. Monday’s 30% chance of rain is for a few scattered showers mostly near and west of I-35. It shouldn’t be raining all day long and there will be some breaks in the rain, but we can’t guarantee a completely dry day. I wouldn’t cancel your outdoor plans, but I would give yourself some wiggle room in case rain impacts your plans. After Monday’s rain departs, we’ll likely see a few more scattered showers and storms Tuesday. Rain chances Tuesday are near 40% with highs in the low 80s again, but the faucet should mostly shut off late in the week. We still do have the chance for scattered showers and storms each afternoon, but rain coverage won’t be that widespread. We’re also expecting temperatures to warm up into the upper 80s too which, believe it or not, is a bit cooler than average!

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