Ahead of triple-digit highs, we’ll have strong storm chances to get through first

Published: Jun. 8, 2023 at 5:56 AM CDT
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We’ve been hanging on to the “cooler” temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s for a while now and we’ve been hanging on to the daily pop-up storm chances too, but the heat will start to dominate and the rain chances will shut down next week. Fortunately, before we start to bake for days on end, we’ll have a few more halfway decent chances for showers and thunderstorms and we’ll even potentially see a stray few stronger thunderstorms too. A wave of energy from West Texas is pushing in this morning and will settle near our area and could help to spark a few showers and storms. Today’s shower and storm chances are near 30% with the best rain chances coming in the Brazos Valley and also east of I-35. We could see a stray shower or two this morning, but those pop-up showers and storms will start to bubble up around and after lunch time. We’ll generally see the same type of storms today as the last few days, but a stray overachieving strong storm or two could produce gusty winds and up to half-dollar size hail. Today’s showers and storms are most likely during the midday and afternoon hours and are most likely to form east of I-35 and into the Brazos Valley. Like the past few days, any storms that form should dissipate shortly after sunset.

We’re still stuck in this weather pattern that could bring pop-up storms to the area Friday too. Rain chances have slipped a bit to near 10% Friday afternoon, but a stray few storms could again bubble up in the heat. Speaking of the heat, highs should warm into the mid-90s on Friday and will likely stay in the mid-90s or above straight through the end of next week! Despite only a 10% chance of rain tomorrow, there may be a slightly higher rain chance, near 30%, Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe storms are unlikely Friday, but an approaching compact upper-level disturbance should bring us strong storm chances again Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain chances Saturday are only near 30% since there’s a fair bit of uncertainty regarding how widespread the storms will be, but storms are expected to blossom to our north along a stalled front and to our west along an approaching dry line. Storms could initially be isolated in nature which may lead to a risk of large hail and maybe a stray tornado, but it’s not clear whether or not these storms will form in our area or just out of our area, but with time, storms to our north and to our west will congeal into a complex of storms and the main storm threat will shift to strong wind gusts that could be 60 MPH or higher. Saturday’s best storm chances start late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. Saturday’s storms depart after sunset and we may stay mostly dry Sunday with rain chances near 20%.

Friday and Saturday’s highs in the mid-90s will be fairly warm, but high temperatures could potentially approach 100° on Sunday, especially west of I-35, as a ridge of high pressure starts to exert control over the area. Despite Sunday’s highs reaching the upper 90s and potentially the triple-digits in a few spots, we may see a few extra clouds Monday and Tuesday and that could aid in dropping temperatures a bit. Instead of flirting with 100°, highs Monday and Tuesday should stay just below the century mark. Gusty south winds will start to return next week and mid-week wind gusts could be as high as 30 MPH. Although strong wind gusts are a bit abnormal this time of year, it’s not unprecedented. The heat-dome ridge of high pressure that’ll be settling across Texas next week will keep an area of low pressure up to our north. The area of low pressure will help to bump the wind speeds up while the ridge of high pressure shuts down rain chances and causes high temperatures to hover close to 100° every day from next Wednesday through at least next Saturday.

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