Heavy rain on the way with cooler temperatures to boot too!

Published: Oct. 3, 2023 at 5:28 AM CDT
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It’s full steam ahead to what’ll be our first true fall cold front arriving later this week! Yeah, we’ll still have to get through a few more warm and humid days today and tomorrow, but highs in the 70s and in the 80s are expected later this week, into the weekend, and into next week too! Morning temperatures are also going to take a pretty notable drop this weekend and early next week as lows dip into the low 50s! Temperatures this morning starting out in the upper 60s and low 70s with mostly sunny skies overhead. We’re expecting to see mostly sunny skies until the afternoon when partly cloudy skies return. Temperatures should reach the upper 80s for some and low 90s for most late this afternoon, but we could potentially also see some rain. Today’s rain chances in the afternoon and evening are between 20% and 30%. The best chance for afternoon rain will be near and especially east of I-35. After sunset, showers east of I-35 will dissipate, but we’ll have to watch out for storms to our west to move in. Those storms may dissipate long before they get here, but could impact mostly cities and towns west of I-35 should they hold on.

Wednesday is the transition day away from the heat and into the rainier and eventually cooler conditions. Thanks to increasing cloudiness and returning moisture, overnight lows will only drop into the mid-70s and we’ll potentially start out about 10° warmer on Wednesday compared to Tuesday with a bunch more humidity hanging around too! While we may start out mostly dry, scattered showers and storms are expected to move in from the south near and east of I-35 during the day. If you live west of I-35, you likely won’t see much of any rain during the day, but the first of two cold fronts starts to push in from the west and northwest after sunset. We’re expecting at least one distinctive round of heavy rain which will likely arrive around or shortly after midnight. The first wave of rain likely won’t produce any severe weather, but we could see a stray strong storm with gusty winds and some small hail. The second wave of rain, should it form, will push in as the actual front pushes through mainly Thursday morning after sunrise. The atmosphere could be worked over enough to prevent that second round of rain from taking hold, but we are expecting it to. Rain chances will be high Thursday morning but will then likely taper off during the afternoon. The second cold front, pushing in Friday, could bring us a few stray showers, but rain chances are only near 20%. At least an inch of rain is expected through Friday, but we could 2″ or more of rain near and east of I-35, especially if the second wave of rain pushes in.

Let’s talk temperatures: The clouds and rain coming Thursday and Friday will help to drop highs from near 90° on Wednesday to near 80° both on Thursday and Friday. Since the first cold front doesn’t push through with cooler air attached, we’ll have to wait until cold front number two arrives Friday in order to drop those temperatures even more. We’ll remain near 80° Friday afternoon despite gusty north winds returning, but those north winds stay strong through Friday night and Saturday and will pull down some of the coldest air we’ve seen since April. Under partly cloudy skies, highs will drop into the low 70s Saturday with mid-70s returning Sunday. Upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s return for highs Monday through next Thursday. As far as morning lows go, we’re still stuck in the 60s and 70s every morning through Friday, but Friday’s afternoon front will drop temperatures into the mid-50s Saturday morning and then should drop into the low 50s Sunday and Monday! It’s entirely possible for more rural and low lying locations to briefly dip into the upper 40s! The chill won’t last long since we’ll warm back into the mid-50s Tuesday morning and then back into the low-60s mid-week next week. Another cold front could potentially push through next weekend, but details are murky, at best, in regards to that front.

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